Last month, we had a lively open thread discussion wherein SSP readers ranked the 2008 Senate races based on each seat’s likelihood of flipping party control. For the hell of it, let’s try it again, only for House races. Below is a list of 50 potentially competitive House seats, 30 of which are held by Republicans, and 20 held by Democrats. Open seats are in italics, and the links are to the 2008 Race Tracker wiki for more background. Of these 50, create a list of the top 10, 20, 30, or even 50 (if you’re very dedicated) seats that are likeliest to change party hands next year. I know that I’m missing some other potentially competitive races, so please don’t interpret this post as my view of 2008’s House “playing field”. Some of these races are extremely unlikely to change hands, but I’d still like to see other takes.
I hope you have your crystal balls in hand.
TX-22
Tough district and won by a fluke.
OH-15
Open seat against ready-and-able challenger.
FL-13
Contentious election, though could go either way if Buchanan is a break-out freshman.
AZ-01
Open seat with the taint of the incumbent.
CA-11
Freshman in a tough district against with a tough challenger.
FL-16
Won by a fluke in a tough district.
KS-02
Very strong opponents in a Presidential year.
NC-08
Tough district with a tough opponent, but Hayes seems more prepared than those above. (See: ’06)
GA-08
Great challenger in a Presidential year, though Marshall has the edge. (See: ’06)
IL-18
Tough open seat, especially if Obama is the nominee.
CT-04
OH-18
NM-01
CA-04
AZ-08
NH-01
MI-07
NY-20
MO-06
PA-04
Almost 60% of it is anchored in the Rochester suburbs, which are becoming more and more moderate and Democratic. Not to mention, in 2005, Corning, the largest city in the district and MAssa’s hometown, elected it’s first Democratic mayor since the 1940s. It’s just that this district was redrawn in 2002 to make it as Republican as reasonable possible in NY, and that set the Democratic trend back quite a bit. The district should start giving better margins to Democrats in the future, and Massa almost won 51-49. If the national party had ever raised a finger to help him he probably would have won, and now, despite his amazingly close race last time around, it appears as if they doing more of the same thing again. (I’m sorry but I just can’t get over who you drop five hundred grand for Mike Weaver in KY-05, a pathetic candidate who’s fundraising left much to be desired, and wasn’t polling well in a 65-34 in Bush’s favor district, and who was running against a popular six term incumbent, while passing up a Candidate like Massa running against a weak freshman incumbent).
We do have a good candidate in NM-01 – he’s Martin Heinrich and he has strong grassroots support, as well as good marks from regular Dems and Independents. He’s been a very popular Albuquerque City Council President, known as a fair negotiator. He’s very strong on environmental issues as well as economic issues like raising the minimum wage, for which he was instrumental in gaining passage in Albuquerque.
He was in the top 20 Congressional candidate fundraisers on ActBlue as of last quarter.
Here’s his website: http://www.martinhei…
Find a top-tier challenger for Pat Tiberi. He’s treading on thin ice too, and I think ’06 could have been much better if we didn’t run such an old guy (though Shamansky’s Anvil Ad was probably the best of the cycle).
1. OH-15 – It’s very hard to see how this Democratic trending, Columbus, OH district where Republicans are running scared stays in the Republicans’ hands.
2. AZ-01 – The taint of Renzi will go some ways away, which certainly gives us a huge opening in this swing district.
3. MI-07 – Now, without our usual sacrifical goat, Walberg’s thin ice is breaking.
4. OH-16 – With Regula all but certainly retiring, the GOP will find it hard to retain in Ohio’s environment in ’08.
5. TX-22 – While the Chet Edwards example may give Lampson some comfort, he will have much difficulty in retaining this district. He should immediately seek to register, woo and turnout this district’s growing and untapped Hispanic and Asian populations.
6. NM-01 – This may actually be an open seat, but regardless, Heather Wilson’s role in the Attorney Purge has hurt her credibility. Now all we need is a candidate…
7. NC-08 – Now with financial backing, Kissell will make up his lost votes from his near-upset in ’06. If Edwards is the nominee, bump this race up.
8. NY-25 – The supposedly invincible Walsh is now vulnerable, and the DCCC is well aware of this. Bump this up if HRC is the nominee.
9. PA-10 – This will be quite the difficult district to retain, but if Carney pulls through, he’ll likely become an institution like Holden.
10. OH-01 – Although Cranley turned out to be a disappointment, Chabot is never safe in this Ohio environment.
11. GA-08 – Marshall may face an even tougher challenger, but his close call in ’06 was likely in large part that he was new to 40% of the voters.
12. FL-13 – It’s uncertain what impact the taint of election fraud holds in this district, and with that in mind, this could go up or down depending.
13. CO-04 – With a vastly growing population, a disliked incumbent, and hopefully no spoiler 3rd party candidate (who actually may be our nominee), this will be highly contested.
14. CT-04 – Although Shays is a very skilled incumbent, no New England Republican Congresscritter is safe… as he’s the only one.
15. WA-08 – Another close call from ’06 in a Kerry district, Democrats must convince voters to overlook King’s local hero stature.
16. NV-03 – With new people arriving daily, and from the close call in ’06, this one will be a nailbiter.
17. MI-09 – A huge missed opportunity in ’06, but Democrats have realized their problem and take this seriously.
18. MO-06 – A great Democratic candidate, and a district that McCaskill carried. But, it’s too early to see how this race looks right now.
19. WV-02 – Another great recruit for Democrats, but this one will likely be a nailbiter.
20. CA-11 – Republicans are iching to steal this district back, but will the incoming Bay Area population be enough to overcome the GOP’s itching desires?
21. OH-02 – Jean Schmidt is never safe, let’s just hope that she remains the nominee.
22. NJ-07 – Ferguson realized the danger he is in after ’06, but so have the DCCC. This will be a race to watch.
23. NY-26 – We’ve got a great new candidate, but Reynolds came back from the dead in ’06.
24. KS-02 – Jenkins would move this race up, but with Ryun, this will probably remain in Nancy Boyda’s hands.
25. OH-14 – Although we’ve got a great candidate, this race is still uncertain. Will LaTourrette’s scandals make a difference?
26. NH-01 – Can a New England Republican win anymore? I dunno.
27. IL-10 – A Kerry district that was overlooked for the most part in ’06, but this may be Kirk’s lucky year (yet again)
28. NY-29 – Even though Kuhl is a weak incumbent and Massa will now have financial backing, this is still not only the most Republican district in NY, it’s actually the only Upstate NY district NOT trending Democratic.
29. WI-08 – Republicans are also itching to get their hands on this seat, but if John Gard turns out to be the nominee again, Kagen will be re-elected.
30. AK-AL – It’s dubious to whether Young will actually run for re-election. If he does, this goes up.
Close calls: IN-09, GA-12, CA-04.
A primary on the GOP side?
So fun.
At the moment I’d make the Top 10: AZ1, CA4, CT4, OH15, OH16, WA8, CA11, GA8, KS2, PA10.
Next 10 most likely to flip: FL13, MO6, NM1, NY25, NY26, NY29, OH1, GA12, NH1, WI8.
Those aren’t ranked inside each group (at this point in the campaign separating 7 from 8 or 13 from 15 seems a little silly).
I can see that reasoning, but until some other races become more clear, I’m going to err on the side of caution on this one – especially given how little he won by last time.
But yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if I considered this to be a relatively safer seat once the various retirments and primaries shake themselves out next year.
Against State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins.
The Club For Growth, incidentally, has come out in favor of Ryun.
1. OH-15 (R-OPEN)
—This will likely prove to be our best pickup opportunity of the election. Incumbency was pretty much the only thing that kept this district in Pryce’s hands last cycle. This seat is as good as Kilroy’s in ’08.
2. TX-22 (D-Nick Lampson)
—Lampson has proven himself to be an extremely savvy politician, but it will be a very daunting task to fight the Republican tilt of this district without another Republican scandal. He can raise as much money as he wants, but I can only see the combination of these two events making him safe in a presidential election year: 1. Noriega is the Senate candidate and he runs a close or winning campaign against Cornyn, creating a coattail effect for Houston-area Dems; 2. Sekula-Gibbs is the Republican nominee, as she is certifiably nuts.
3. PA-10 (D-Chris Carney)
—Carney’s doing a fairly good job of staying moderate enough to appeal to voters in this district, but with scandal-free Republican, reelection seems like a tough order. I can see him losing even if we pick up several Republican-held seats in more Dem-leaning districts.
4. CT-04 (R-Chris Shays)
–Shays is already a moderate, and expect him to make the appearance of moving even further towards the center to try and hang on, but I just have trouble seeing how he gets out of this election alive. New England Rockefeller Republicans are dying, as last cycle made abundantly clear. Add to that Jim Hines being one hell of a formidable candidate and Shays is out the door.
5. OH-16 (R-Ralph Regula or R-OPEN)
—Ohio is looking like one of best bets in the next election. If Regula doesn’t retire, Republicans might hold on, but otherwise, this district may be trending Blue based off of gains made by Kerry in 2004 & Brown last cycle and Boccieri seems like a very formidable candidate.
6. WA-08 (R-Dave Reichert)
—In a presidential election year Burner should be able to pull this off. The key will be to define Reichert as too far to the right for a swing district, hitting him especially on social and environmental issues.
7. NM-01 (R-Heather Wilson or R-OPEN)
—I am really hoping that Wilson runs for Senate because: 1. she will be hammered by Udall/Madrid/whoever over the Attorneygate scandal that would have lead to Domenici’s resignation in the first place by and lose; 2. the Democratic candidate in NM-01 would then have no problem picking up the open district, no matter who the Republican nominee ends up being, especially with Wilson presumably floundering on a state-wide scale.
8. IN-09 (D-Baron Hill)
—The potential for a Republican pickup here is huge, although it doesn’t look like they’re really jumping on it. Still, this seat looks to be the most vulnerable of our Indiana pickups, so Hill is probably going to be facing a difficult race for a second term regardless.
9. GA-08 (D-Jim Marshall)
—Marshall’s task is somewhat less daunting now that he has been elected by his new district once, but in a presidential election he still remains very vulnerable. Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard will probably play very well in this district regardless of who’s at the top of the ticket for either party, so Marshall’s best bet is a nasty primary between Goddard and Mac Collins if he decides to get in.
10. IL-14 (R-OPEN)
—A blue-trending open seat makes this race a prime pickup opportunity. The early primary in Illinois and lack of a clear frontrunner for the nomination on either side might help turn this race into a barometer for the national mood: if the Democrat pulls away then ’08 might look like ’06 all over again, but if the Republican holds on or takes the lead, we might see more mixed results. Obama being on the top of the ticket would negate that, of course, because then the Democrat would have a clear edge.
Very glad that he’s running. Thanks for all your updates.
MI-09 will be one of the Top 5 hottest races in the country.
A base vote analysis here at SSP shows that Democrats have put up some poor performing Congressional candidates, despite the fact that other Democrats on the ticket in the 9th district perform very well.
The news that Gary Peters HAS entered the race (at the time the post was intended to draft him) puts this district on the table. Gary is the first candidate to take on Knollenberg who has held office before.
Look at the Democratic base of 50.49%, not Skinner’s 46.21 performance.
1) OH-15 will be to this cycle what IA-1 or CO-7 were last cycle: an open seat that the GOP essentially cedes so as to focus elsewhere.
2) TX-22
3) PA-10
4) FL-16: if we hold two of these three “accidental” seats it’s an excellent cycle for us.
5) AZ-1
6) CA-4: easier with the current incumbent, or a Bob Ney-style late withdrawal.
7) KS-2: a difficult seat to hold.
8) MI-7
9) MI-9: dream recruits in these seats; Schauer and Peters have a record of being elected in the territory they’d be running to represent.
10) WA-8: I was lucky enough to have a great conversation with Darcy Burner at Yearly Kos. She’s clearly very sharp and knows that her presidential-year win number is higher than in 2006, but also possibly easier to get to.
Worry spots: GA8, WI8, CA11.
Less worried: NH1, for three reasons: the political apparati of Jeanne Shaheen and John Lynch, two people who know how to win in NH, will be turning out Democratic votes.
Other bright spots: NC8, OH1, 2, 14, and 16, NM1, NV3
OH-15 (the consensus pick, it seems)
AZ-1 (if Renzi runs again… otherwise, Generic R might fare a little better)
TX-22 (depends on the quality of the R candidate; Lampson could easily win a rematch with Snelly Gibr)
NM-1 (even higher if Wilson bails out to run for Pajama Pete’s senate seat)
FL-16 (probably, of our seats, this was the one that was won most accidentally)
CT-4 (Shays has a big target on his back)
MI-7 (Walberg is way out of step with his district)
CA-4 (again, depends on whether Doolittle runs… Generic R should retain the seat)
NC-8 (Kissell can probably pick up the last few votes he needs)
PA-10 (may just be too red a seat to keep)
On the cusp:
WA-8, IL-10, CA-26, NY-25, MO-6 for pickups, GA-8, KS-2, NH-1 for losses
is much more Democratic at its roots than the Bush/Kerry spread suggests. Both Sherrod Brown and Mike DeWine won the district by huge margins in 2006 and district registration favors Democrats. Also, the seat was held by nothing but Democrats before 1994.
Taking the partisan approval ratings into consideration:
First of all, no D-held seat that flipped R in 1994 (or from a state that was unduly affected by 1994) is totally safe if Hillary is on the ballot. If she’s not, it’ll be a much better race for everyone.
It’s clear that Ohio is going to be huge at the presidential level again, which means no D pickups in traditionally R territory and v/v, but a D advantage in the swing districts. Agree with the others that OH-15, 16, and maybe 14 are likely D pickups. Chabot and Schmidt are probably safe – OH-01 is too close to Cincinnati to flip D in a presidential year, and OH-02 will have strong GOP turnout regardless of Schmidt’s personal lack of appeal. Schmidt is the only reason this district is on the table for us at all, and then only in off years. On the Democratic side, I can see Space being replaced by a Republican who isn’t Padgett, but I can just as easily see him winning.
MI-07 and 09 are both prime flip opportunities for D’s. IL-10 can flip with enough money/publicity for Dan Seals. IL-14 and 18 are likely safe for the GOP, though I’d love to see Foster’s candidacy in IL-14 catch fire. On the Midwestern defense side, WI-08 is the only race I’d be really worried about, though any of the Indiana seats could go at any time. (Here, I’d actually be most concerned about IN-02. Ellsworth is holding his own in IN-08, and in IN-09 a lot of Sodrel’s former constituents are so sick of him that if he runs against Hill yet again, he’ll lose.) MN-01 is probably safe in a presidential year, though possibly not if Hillary is nominated. Boswell in IA-03 will keep teetering on the edge, but I doubt he goes over this year.
Any Republican in New England is endangered. Shays is endangered. Given the high percentage of New Yorkers in CT-04, it’s likely that this is the year that turnout for the Democratic presidential nominee (especially if it’s Hillary) sweeps Shays off the map. Shays only still has a fighting chance if the GOP picks Guiliani, and probably not even then. (strong candidate Himes + presidential year + Shays losing it in the minority = Democratic victory) The CT and NH seats picked up in 2006 won’t change back to the GOP in 2008, and Allen’s open seat in ME-01 is safe as well.
Mid-Atlantic region the GOP isn’t doing much better. This will come down to the individual districts more than New England, but I still expect to see some movement in NJ-07, as well as in PA-15 and possibly even PA-06. NY-13 is another district targeted by the DCCC that isn’t on here. (They could also easily target NJ-02, 03, 04, and 05, as well as NY-03, but it’s an expensive market.) NY-25 is all but assured to fall into Democratic hands in a presidential year, though NY-26 and 29 are safer. On the Democratic side, expect Hall and Gillibrand to both hold their seats, PA-10 is likely to flip back to the GOP regardless of anything Carney does or doesn’t do, and PA-04 only leans toward Altmire, though there’s no reason to expect him not to win.
Plains – MO is a Bible Belt state that’s been trending R lately, and even a total idiot like Graves is likely to be safe in a presidential year. On the Democratic side, Boyda will have to fight hard to keep KS-02, but has two advantages – 1.) Ryun instead of a generic Republican, and 2.) her grassroots network. I think she can do it in any circumstance save a total (and unlikely) Hillary-induced Democratic rout.
In the West, CA-04 is all but assured for Brown as long as Doolittle stays, but likely R if he goes. Same for AZ-01, with a better chance for the Democrat against Generic No-Name Brand Republican, and AK-AL, if Young doesn’t get himself primaried, which he won’t. CA-26 is too white collar to be competitive in a presidential year; ditto AZ-03, much as I’d love to get rid of Shadegg. WA-08 is a likely D pickup with presidential turnout, but could go awry if Hillary is nominated. Given ID-01’s strong GOP lean, it’s more likely that Sali will be primaried at some point than that he’ll actually lose to Grant (regardless of Grant’s strength as a candidate). I wish MT-AL was competitive, but in a presidential year it won’t be. On the D defensive side, AZ-05 is the only potentially competitive district. I think Giffords should run for McCain’s open seat when he inevitably retires. For now, AZ-08 is safe. CA-11 is probably safe, too, but in a presidential year one never knows.
Dems will probably win 2 of the following swing races: CO-04, FL-13, NM-01, NV-03. My money’s on FL-13 and NM-01. Wilson’s so compromised by Attorneygate that she can’t win, and Buchanan won’t have the Diebold machines to help him cheat in 2008. NV-03 could be a surprise upset thanks to the volatility of Nevada’s population growth, but CO-04 has enough rednecks in it that Musgrave is probably safe.
This leaves the South. Democratic opportunities in a presidential year are likely to be reduced, and all but eliminated if Hillary is the nominee. NC-08 might still be a pickup thanks to Kissell’s local popularity, and WV-02 is anybody’s guess. Anything else is a crapshoot. On the defense side, GA-08 and 12 are ticking time bombs, and presidential level turnout in one of the few states still trending R will be enough to send one or both over the edge. (Judging by our dismal results in GA-10, I could easily see us losing both.) We’ll also lose either TX-22 or FL-16, probably the former. If we lose at least one of the GA districts and TX-22, but hang on to FL-16 and pick up NC-08 and/or WV-02, we’re doing well here. (TX-23 is propped up by the Hispanic vote in El Paso, and is likely to be fine no matter what happens thanks to Ciro being a good fit for the district.)
Probably some losses on both sides, but a 2-3 seat gain for the Democrats overall. Maybe as many as 6-7 in truly exceptional circumstances that aren’t going to happen, but 2-3 is a safe bet.
The locals here are excited for a reason! Gary Peters has announced, his website is PetersForCongress. His announcement was covered by The Hill, The Politico, and Talking Points Memo.
He’s been met with nothing but cheers and standing ovations at local Dem Party events, including the latest Oakland County Party meeting. He’s got the endorsement of practically every elected Dem in MI-09, and two unions already felt comfortable enough to endorse given his record in the state Senate.
Dem base in MI-09 was 50.49 last year, and Gary has consistently beat base in the same precincts.
And Steve Driehaus is indeed Minority Whip.
Top Ten Republican
1. OH-15- Pryce has retired, and now Kilroy has an opening. Republicans seem likely to end with former AG Jim Petro, who’s still got some Republicans angry with him because of his 2006 run against Blackwell, when he ran to the right, yes, to the right of Blackwell, which also hurts attempts to woo independants. The five hundred pound gorilla though is his connection to universally hated Bob Taft, and his connection to the Noe coin scandel, both make him radioactive in a state where Sen. Padgett lost 62-38 in a district that gave Bush 57% of the vote, mainly because of her connection to Congressman Noe, (another one). Kilroy has name recognition from last time, no primary, (whereas Petro’s going to have a least one major Republican run against him, but no one, it looks like, that could beat him). With this district quickly trending Democratic, and a Democrat likely to have a clear victory here on election day, (at least if we pick up another four points, like we did in 2004), I’d say that this is our biggest pick up opportunity unless bigger ones should arise, ex. Tom Davis, VA-11 running for Senate and leaving us with a hodge podge of strong candidates here and Republicans with very few, or Mike Castle DE-AL retiring.
2. MO-06, popular ex-KC mayor, which makes up forty percent of this district, is running against a four term Republican who hasn’t been seriously tested since he narrowly won an open seat in 2000. AS far as MO districts go this one is consider to be a toss up district, as least on a state level, Bush won it 57% last time, but you can bet he’s a lot less popular this time arround. Not to mention another Kansas City Democrat, Claire McCaskill won the district 50-47, (or the same as her statewide margin), over well funded, well known GOP incumbent Jim Talent. Aside from Barnes having an advantage in KC plus KC-suburbs portion of the district, St. Joseph, the districts other major population center also leans Democratic, Kerry narrowly won it, and McCaskill won it by a large margin. The only problem is that many of the rural counties appear to be some of the most conservative in the state. PArticularly in the northwest corner of the district, along the Nebraska-West Iowa-Northeast Kansas Statelines, there are some counties that apparently, haven’t come within ten points of electing a Democrat for a statewide position in over fifty years. Not to mention, many of the fast growing KC exurban counties, like in MO-04, (Ike Skelton’s district), are very strongly conservative leaning. Barnes however, outraised Graves by some sixty thousand in second quarter, her first fundraising quarter.
3. OH-18: Regula is going to retire, and Bocceri is an almost perfect candidate in a moderately Republican leaning swing district steadily turning Democratic. If Edwards is our Presidential candidate, he likely win this district in route to an Ohio victory.
4. WV-02: Sen. Unger is a perfect candidate, and Capito has never been tested, right wing media throughout the district and the state though buys up her ridiculous smear attacks against Unger, some of which don’t even make sense, (2006 Sen. Candidate John Raese owns most of the state media due to consolidation).
5. NC-08: 2008 may not be as bad an environment as 2006, but Hayes is really going to feel the fire when his enemies spend 40 times as much money as last time to take him down. Kissell is a great candidate and a great contrast to Hayes in this mostly poor, middle class district. Hayes is a multi-millionare who inheirited it all, from a great textile owning fmaily, one of the original four the founded the area, while Kissell was a textile mill worker, and later a social studies teacher.
6. MI-07: Wahlburgs so far right and nutty, he’s Bill Sali but not as stupid, and his distrit is no Sali Idaho, it’s not 69-30 for Bush, but 54-45, a swing district. He barely won against a candidate who decided to make a campaign point by not raising money two elections in a row. That stupidity, self evidently, didn’t pay off, each election, even when it was an open seat, she lost, the first time, she got slaughtered, only Wahlburg’s scandels kept her within three points of him. Former State. Berryman is a good candidate with the right connections and fairly good base where he has some name rec, but if Schauer runs, I would guess he’d drop out out of deference, and this race would immediately move up the line, though I think it’s a little to high now.
7. MI-09: locals say Gary Peters is the perfect candidate, though he has not announced yet. Knollenburg was exposed as loyal stalwart Conservative in a district that voted for Bush by one percentage point last time, and properly, he barely won reelection. Now, he continues to support the Ira war in every way, shape, and form, so if it’s still ragin by election day, expect him to be lose.
8. OH-01: State House Minority Leader, (or Whip, I don’t remember), Steve Dreihaus is a well known political force within the district. He makes a good candidate against Chabot, who only very narrowly beat John Cranley last year by changing the subject last minute to illegal immigartion, which helped him in the conservative suburban portions of the district, which won him the election, which is exactly why the Republican controlled state legislature put them there. But, Dreihaus, represents a more conservative suburban house district, therefore he has a base in Chabot’s stronger areas. If he can cut into Chabot’s margins there, while keeping up a good margin in the city, (which he should be able to in a presidential turnout year), he could just pull it off.
9. Tie NY-29/WY-AL/WA-08: There are rumors the Kuhl is retiring, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. Good thing in that we don’t have to face a well known two term incumbent who has a very large devoted base of conservatives who love him, bad thing because his bad campaigning skills, conservative record, and gaffes have made this a close race two times in a row. But, maybe there will be an all out, bloody three way primary, where the winner comes out pennyless, and thoroughly trashed, while Massa, with no priamry, walks in the General Election with tons of money, and better name rec. from his 2006 run, and wins narrowly. WY-AL:well, all I can say is that it depends on whether Barbera Cubin is on the ballot. Gary Trauner would still do well if Republicans put someone else on, but we wouldn’t have any chance of winning without her. WA-08: It all depends on whether Sen. Rodney Tom gets the nomination. I have to feel he’s the stronger candidate.
10. OPEN: This seat is open, and I’m waiting for one of the following seats to fall into it: NY-26, CO-04, (primary keeps it off the list), Saxton to retire or Sen. Addler to jump in, MS-03, (Moore or Musgrave to jump in), CT-04, FL-13, (I don’t have a feel as to whether the publics acted negatively or postively to her election fraud charges, nor do I know how they will react this year, in a presidential year, with Bucahnanon as the incumbent, even if the district is gradually growing more Democratic), or AK-AL, (in which Young would have to reitre, and Begich be in to get here.
Look out next time for my Top Ten Democratic seats at risk! Dund, dund duuuunnd.
I agree that Napolitano is the best candidate for McCain’s seat, but we need to keep our options open, and Giffords would be a good backup for an open seat race. Napolitano is such a strong candidate that she could probably make a race for Kyl’s seat competitive as well, though obviously she’d prefer the easy route.
Also, why wait for a retirement in 2018? Get a strong candidate against Kyl, take advantage of the bluing demographics of Arizona, and hold him accountable for his miserable record. The man’s been an architect of most of the failed Republican policies of the last decade. He should finally be held accountable.
Because of GOP gerrymandering, all of Ohio’s major cities are split among two or more districts to dilute them and make the districts GOP-friendly: Cincinnati between OH1 and OH2, Columbus between OH12 and OH15, Dayton between OH3 and OH8 (Cleveland is also split but the metro area is too big and blue for the plan to work). Sensible redistricting plans in 2012 will help even out what should be a split delegation.
If Kilroy picks up OH15 and hangs on through 2010, you can make the seat a Columbus seat that is a much more likely D hold. If Dreihaus wins OH1 (or Wulsin wins OH2) and hangs on, you can make Cincinnati into a fair-fight seat and draw those Boehner/Schmidt suburbs into a single GOP seat. Even Dayton, if it weren’t carved up, could be a swing seat.
I am very excited! I’m moving from NC-9 to OH-15. It’ll be nice to help turn this one Blue!